As 2016 comes to an end, looking back at the performance of various capital markets during the year, commodity futures are undoubtedly a special one, on the one hand, a number of varieties have increased by more than 1 times, on the other hand, the recent sharp fluctuations in the market have also made many investors lose their money instantly.
On December 11, at the first professional Traders conference in China hosted by the Trading House, a number of major players in the futures industry issued similar sentiments.
Wu Hongtao, general manager of Good Environment Investment Management Co., LTD., said in an interview with surging news reporters that during the peak period, even the excess return level of 10 times is not the highest in the industry.
In the commodity futures market in 2016, black commodities are the most dazzling. "Peerless double coke" - coking coal, coke from January to November period is almost unilateral rising market.
Coking coal futures main contract price from 565 yuan/ton, to November 14 reached the highest peak of 1676 yuan/ton, at this time an increase of 197%. Subsequently, after a series of adjustments, to December 9 day and night closing at 1273 yuan/ton, the rise after falling still reached 125%.
The trend of coke is similar, from 643 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, the highest price in the year was 2276.5 yuan/ton, also reached the peak on November 14, corresponding to the highest increase of 254%. On December 9, the day closed at 1754.5 yuan/ton, corresponding to a 173% increase in the year.
However, in the view of the industry, in fact, black goods contribute less than half of the revenue.
"Double 11" market history is rare
Wu Hongtao told surging news reporters: "The wave of market in October is actually very few people. For us, the big market is not necessarily a good thing, because futures and stocks are different, rising does not mean that you must make money, futures can be long, can also be short. In the big market, one or two negative lines can kill people."
On the day and night of November 11, a number of varieties immediately hit the daily limit at the opening, but after the opening 40 minutes, the situation suddenly changed, and within a few minutes, such an extreme market can be regarded as the most thrilling day in the futures industry in 2016.
"I hardly slept that night," said Wu Hongtao, recalling the night. At more than 11 o 'clock, a friend called me and said that 50 million funds had achieved 40% returns this year, and the result was all gone overnight."
He also revealed that after the "double 11" big blood wash, at a dinner, the six or seven private equity people present engaged in futures investment, two of their products are on the verge of liquidation.
Zhang Wenjun, chairman of Beijing Aohan Investment Co., LTD., also agreed. In the interview, he pointed out that although there have been many consecutive market drops in the futures market in the past, this situation is completely worse, mainly because the speed of the reversal of the market is extraordinary, and more than one variety, the coverage is extremely wide.
Zhang Wenjun, who has been engaged in personal futures investment since 1996, increased his capital from 100,000 to 10 million in five years.
He told reporters in the paper: "On the black department, we do not know how many people make a lot of money, but there are indeed big losses."
According to Wu Hongtao and Zhang Wenjun, the sudden change in the market on November 11, on the one hand, is because the exchange has issued eight consecutive "gold" restrictions, and under high policy pressure, investors began to be nervous in the face of high prices. On the other hand, the night trading, participating traders less than the day trading, "in the following orders are also less", and profit trading because of the large scale, it is easy to trigger the program trading when clearing, accelerating the market reversal.
Commodity cattle may be sustainable in 2017
For the market in 2017, Zhang Wenjun revealed that he was optimistic about black rebar and hot-rolled coil.
He said: "This year's supply side reform is mainly in the coal industry, so we see this year is coking coal, coke in the surge, next year I think the supply side reform will be to steel, then the future of the main black system will turn to rebar and hot rolled coil." Other supporting factors include the continued infrastructure boom and the property market remaining on an upward trend."
In addition, Zhang Wenjun is also optimistic about nickel in non-ferrous metals, because nickel's increase in 2016 is the smallest in the non-ferrous sector, there are opportunities to make up.
Ding Hongbo, founder of Hangzhou Shangze Investment Management Co., LTD., is also very optimistic, he told surging news reporters: "The next rebar will be the protagonist, the commodity bull market will certainly continue, the bull market will dare to think, to make bold assumptions."
As for agricultural products and chemical fields, Wu Hongtao, who is known as "soybean meal King", told surging news reporters that his current commodity futures holdings are four types of varieties, respectively, meal, oil, rubber and PTA.
He is particularly bullish on rubber prospects for 2017. "Hainan's willingness to replant rubber is not strong, and there will definitely be a shortage of supply in the future, so I am absolutely optimistic about it in the long run."
However, Wu Hongtao pointed out that 2017 will not continue to strengthen, but may face adjustments. "I think the market is hot this year, the first half of next year to trim, as to what extent, but also depends on the trend after." After this year's hot, all the market out of the so-called fundamentals, has been repositioned, this positioning is reasonable, to verify the market, we had better rest next year. Investment needs to wait for opportunities, but there are not no opportunities."